Daily Rundown
October 5, 2026
Chart of the Day
Number of the Day
49.0
The employment diffusion index in September, the first sub-50.0 reading, indicating that fewer industries gained workers than lost them, in nine months and the lowest level since last October
Quote of the Day
“As we look ahead, my view is that any future adjustments in policy should be determined by carefully examining trends in the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. My colleagues and I will need to come to our own judgment, which may take more time.”
Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson
Friday’s Highlights
Nonfarm payroll employment (September) rose by 29,000.
The unemployment rate (September) increased to 4.2 percent from a prior 4.1 percent.
Average hourly earnings (September) rose by 0.1 percent on the month and 3.0 percent YoY.
The average workweek (September) held steady at 34.4 hours.
Factory orders (August) inched up by 0.1 percent.
Quick Commentary
Friday’s jobs report was thoroughly soft, as payroll growth slowed, breadth was poor, and wages ticked up only modestly. But just as the August numbers were skewed to the upside by an unusually supportive seasonal adjustment, these figures were pushed downward by the opposite effect. The BLS adjusted the raw headline for September by -304,000, versus -229,000 in the same month last year and the most negative in a September since 2016. The upshot is that the true trend in the labor market is very likely somewhere in between that suggested by the very solid payroll data of a month ago and the very weak numbers of last week. One development worth noting, however, is the ongoing cooling in annual wage growth, which now stands at its lowest level since 2021 and is back in line with its pre-pandemic trend. This should be taken as a sign that softer job growth is not solely a function of a shrinking labor force, but rather is at least in part due to easing demand.
Today’s Highlights
ISM services survey
Daily Trivia
What company attempted to cash in on its meme stock status by selling shares to the public while in bankruptcy in 2020, inspiring the headline “And Now For Something Completely Worthless”?
(Friday’s Question: What long-defunct automobile brand saw a revival in collector interest when it was referenced in the theme song of the most-watched television series of the 1970s? Answer: LaSalle (All in the Family))