Daily Rundown

May 27, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

1.7 - The year-over-year percentage change in FHFA's house price index in the first quarter, the smallest increase since early 2012

Quote of the Day

"Uncertainty continues to play a big role in capital expenditure decisions. We are not investing in fixed assets but are focusing all resources on reserves and ongoing operations, outsourcing more and establishing new alliances." - Respondent to the May Dallas Fed manufacturing survey

Tuesday's Highlights

Consumer confidence (May) slipped to 93.1 from a prior 93.8, as the present situation component moved lower.

The Case-Shiller home price index (March) fell by 0.2 percent on the month and is now up by 0.8 percent year-over-year.

The FHFA home price index (Q1) rose by 0.5 percent on the quarter and is now up by 1.7 percent year-over-year.

The Dallas Fed manufacturing index (May) ticked up to 0.4 from a prior -2.3.

Quick Commentary

Consumer expectations improved a bit this month, but they remain well below confidence in the present situation. This is another hint that the cycle may be in its latter stages, as expectations tend exceed present situation confidence by a wide margin early in expansions before falling well below their real-time counterpart as recessions draw near. The spread between the two series has never been as negative as it is now in the first half of an economic expansion.

Today's Highlights

Mortgage applications

Richmond Fed manufacturing survey

Daily Trivia

What was first established by the U.S. government in salt caverns along the Gulf Coast in the 1970s, the sites chosen because they were secure, inexpensive, and near key distribution points?

(Tuesday's Question: What is the only current S&P 500 stock that has risen by at least 20 percent annualized across each of the last three economic expansions? Answer: UnitedHealth)