Daily Rundown

November 26, 2025

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

-13,500 - ADP's estimate of the average decline in private payroll employment in the four weeks through November 8

Quote of the Day

"For the most part, customer shopping behavior in Q3 did not change materially from the commentary we have shared for the past several quarters. Consumers remain resilient, but deal-focused, and attracted to more predictable sales moments," - Best Buy CEO Corie Barry

Tuesday's Highlights

Retail sales (September) rose by 0.2 percent overall and fell by 0.1 percent in the core control group. Bar/restaurant sales were healthy while the clothing, sporting goods, and electronics components fell.

The PPI (September) moved higher by 0.3 percent on the month and 2.7 percent year-over-year.

The core PPI (September) moved higher by 0.1 percent on the month and 2.6 percent year-over-year.

Consumer confidence (November) declined by 6.8 points to 88.7, as the expectations index hit its second lowest reading in more than a dozen years.

The Case-Shiller home price index (September) rose by 0.1 percent on the month and 1.3 percent year-over-year.

Best Buy same-store sales (August-October) increased by 2.7 percent year-over-year, the fastest pace in more than four years. Consumer electronics and home appliance sales continued to decline, however.

Quick Commentary

It is no coincidence that consumer expectations are back in a downtrend now that the labor market appears to be breaking to the downside. That spending has held up well in this environment likely owes significantly to wealth effects stemming from rising asset prices, reflecting the market's growing importance in keeping the expansion afloat. Consumption cooled off considerably during the bear market in the S&P 500 in 2022 and would very likely come under renewed pressure should equities lapse again.

Today's Highlights

Beige Book

Initial unemployment claims

Durable goods orders

Mortgage applications

Deere earnings

Daily Trivia

What term appeared in print for the first time in a November 2005 National Retail Federation press release on trends in online shopping?

(Tuesday's Question: What country's currency, which has fallen by 96.8 percent since it was revalued in 2005, is ironically symbolized by a half anchor meant to show that it is a "safe harbor"? Answer: Turkey)