Daily Rundown

November 12, 2025

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

-11,250 - ADP's estimate of the average decline in private payroll employment in the four weeks through October 25

Quote of the Day

"Additionally, many firms are still navigating a labor shortage and want to hire but are having difficulty doing so, with labor quality being the top issue for Main Street." - National Federation of Independent Business Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg

Tuesday's Highlights

The small business optimism index (October) fell to a six-month low 98.2 from a prior 98.8. Hiring plans ticked lower while capex plans edged upward.

The Fed's senior loan officer survey (August-October) showed modestly tighter lending standards over the last three months.

Quick Commentary

Bank lending standards continue to tighten very gradually, consistent with the slow-motion slowdown in the economy more broadly. At the same time, job growth is flirting with outright contraction even as nearly a third of small businesses have positions that they are unable to fill. It is telling that businesses with fewer than 50 employees have shed 38,000 workers this year despite the relatively high, albeit falling, level of job openings, suggesting that labor quality is indeed a significant issue. This trend, along with the slowdown in labor force growth, will continue to weigh on employment gains in the months ahead even if the expansion remains afloat.

Today's Highlight

Mortgage applications

Daily Trivia

What country's exports to the U.S. account for more than 30 percent of its GDP, a sea change after the two countries did not trade at all from the mid-1970s to the mid-1990s?

(Monday's Question: What is the only top 50 MSA in the U.S. in which the median home price is less than $250,000? Answer: Cleveland)