Daily Rundown

August 31, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

-178,000

The preliminary benchmark revision to private nonfarm payroll employment in the year through March, versus a preliminary +99,000 for the public sector

Quote of the Day

“And while this summer’s PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.”

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh

Friday’s Highlights

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (August) fell to 51.7 from a prior 55.2.

The Chicago PMI (August) fell 10.5 points to 47.1, the first contraction reading in four months.

The preliminary payroll benchmark revision (April 2025-March 2026) came in at -79,000.

Quick Commentary

Warsh’s comments on Friday were his most substantive since taking over the chair position in May, and also his most hawkish. He said that the labor market indicators are consistent with full employment while the inflation numbers are “more concerning”. The speech stopped short of advocating near-term rate hikes, but it clearly hinted that action could be coming soon absent confidence that inflation was moving “at sufficient speed” to the 2.0 percent target (and here, the Fed chair’s view on the recent PCE and CPI reports suggests that the bar is set high for such a determination). There are several key economic releases on tap for the next two weeks, but at this point the best bet is that a new tightening cycle will be launched at the next FOMC meeting in mid-September.

Today’s Highlights

Dallas Fed manufacturing survey

Daily Trivia

What currency did crisis-stricken Iceland consider adopting in the early 2010s due to its geographic proximity and economic similarity?

(Friday’s Question: What game show has inspired more than a dozen peer-reviewed papers in academic journals, including “A Probability Model for Strategic Bidding” and “To Spin or Not to Spin”? Answer: The Price is Right)