Daily Rundown

August 3, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

3.2

The year-over-year change in the wages and salaries component of the employment cost index in the second quarter, down from 3.4 percent in Q1 and the slowest pace since 2021

Quote of the Day

“Modest action in the near term would reduce the likelihood of needing to take sharper action later.”

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan

Friday’s Highlights

The U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index (July) rose by 5.7 points to a five-month high 55.2.

The employment cost index (Q2) rose by 0.9 percent on the quarter and 3.4 percent year-over-year.

Quick Commentary

Consumer sentiment has improved in recent months, as, not coincidentally, inflation expectations have started to recede. The median one-year inflation outlook in the Michigan survey fell to 4.2 percent in July, down from 4.6 percent in the prior month and 4.8 percent in May. At the same time, wage growth has continued to cool, suggesting that an underlying disinflationary trend remains intact even as exogenous events have whipsawed the headline price metrics. This is likely still not enough for some members of the FOMC, but it should at least limit the magnitude of any tightening in the months ahead.

Today’s Highlights

ISM manufacturing survey

Construction spending

Daily Trivia

What state is home to the only three MSAs in the U.S. in which agricultural workers make up more than 10 percent of overall employment?

(Friday’s Question: Who was one of the wealthiest composers in history, with his estate being bolstered further when an airline licensed one of his most well-known pieces in 1987? Answer: George Gershwin (United, Rhapsody in Blue))