Daily Rundown

July 30, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

3

Dissents in favor of a 25 basis point rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting, the first votes in favor of higher rates in three years

Quote of the Day

“If inflation continues to be elevated through the forecast period, interest rates could well be part of that solution, but I wouldn’t say it’s in isolation.”

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh

Wednesday’s Highlights

The FOMC left the federal funds target rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75 percent in a 9-3 vote.

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 7/18) fell 3.6 percent, as rates continued to climb.

Microsoft’s capex guidance (2026) came in at $175 billion, unchanged after an accounting adjustment.

Meta’s capex guidance (2026) was lifted slightly to $130-$145 billion from a prior $125-$145 billion.

Quick Commentary

The combination of the three dissenting votes at this week’s meeting and the bond market’s poor reaction to yesterday’s announcement should be taken as strong hints that the Fed is now on the brink of tightening policy. There are still two CPI reports, two PPI reports, two PCE reports, and two employment reports before the next FOMC meeting on September 16, but at this point it will likely take a clear dovish break in the data to keep policy on hold for another meeting. That said, this could well turn out to be a one-and-done tightening, such as that in 1997, due to the mixed data flow, the elevated level of uncertainty, and what still looks to be a split among FOMC members. Moreover, the bond market has already done some of the Fed’s work for it, as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is now up by more than 50 basis points since the last rate cut in December.

Today’s Highlights

Unemployment claims

Personal income

Personal spending

PCE price indices

GDP

Daily Trivia

Who was the last Federal Reserve chair to be on the losing end of an FOMC vote on benchmark interest rates?

(Wednesday’s Question: What city’s tech industry bills itself as “Silicon Peach”, a play on the “Silicon Beach” moniker adopted by Los Angeles and Miami? Answer: Atlanta)