Daily Rundown

July 16, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

6.65 - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate last week, equaling the highest since last August.

Quote of the Day

“I don’t view a one-time change in prices (a reference to the potential impact of the AI boom) as necessarily being inflationary because there’s a supply response.”

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh

Tuesday's Highlights

The Beige Book (June-July) showed the economy growing at a “slight to moderate” pace.

The PPI (June) fell by 0.3 percent on the month and is now up by 5.1 percent year-over-year.

The core PPI (June) rose by 0.2 percent on the month and is now up by 4.7 percent year-over-year.

The Empire State manufacturing index (July) improved to 15.6 from a prior 5.7.

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 7/4) fell by 7.3 percent, the most since late January.

Quick Commentary

The PPI was broadly tame last month, with services and core goods prices both advancing by just 0.2 percent. For the latter, it was the smallest increase of the year and marked a significant slowdown after 0.7 percent prints in both April and May. Producer prices continue to run well ahead of consumer prices, however, suggesting some budding pressure on profit margins. Yesterday’s Beige Book report noted that businesses in some Fed districts saw greater price sensitivity among their customers, a sign that it is becoming more difficult to pass wholesale inflation on to the retail level.

Today's Highlights

Unemployment claims

Retail sales

Home builder sentiment

Pending home sales

Daily Trivia

Which CEO famously showed up to a meeting with a venture capital firm in his pajamas, delivering a presentation entitled “Why You Should Not Invest”?

(Wednesday’s Question: Which S&P 500 company was named after the state bird of Ohio? Answer: Cardinal Health)