Daily Rundown

July 15, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

-0.2

The percentage change in the core consumer price index in June, the first decline in 15 months and the largest since May 2020.

Quote of the Day

“There might be some that look at this morning’s data and say, ‘Oh, mission accomplished, everything is swell.’ That is not my view.”

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh

Tuesday’s Highlights

The CPI (June) fell by 0.4 percent on the month and is now up by 3.5 percent year-over-year.

The core CPI (June) fell modestly on the month and is now up by 2.6 percent year-over-year.

The small business optimism index (June) rose to a four-month high 97.4 from a prior 95.3.

Quick Commentary

Yesterday’s CPI numbers were soft almost across the board, as the housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, and miscellaneous components all slowed from their recent trends. The small dip in the core index does look like a bit of an outlier and is unlikely to mark a new norm -note that this was just the 13^th decline in the nearly seven-decade history of the series- but it is at least a strong hint that there remains a significant underlying disinflationary trend. While the tone of Fed commentary has turned more hawkish of late, there is still little to suggest an urgent need for tighter policy.

Today’s Highlights

Beige Book

Producer price index

Empire State manufacturing survey

Mortgage applications

Daily Trivia

Which S&P 500 company was named after the state bird of Ohio?

(Friday’s Question: What group was paid roughly $1,000 to write a jingle for Rice Krispies in 1964, 31 years before they contributed to a much higher-profile campaign for Microsoft? Answer: The Rolling Stones)