Daily Rundown

July 8, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

40.9 - Households' mean probability of an increase in stock prices over the next year, the highest since April 2021

Quote of the Day

"I do feel a little bit more positive about the near-term inflation outlook because of the energy price declines that we're going to see." - New York Fed President John Williams

Tuesday's Highlights

The trade deficit (May) widened to a 14-month high $77.6 billion from a prior $54.6 billion. Exports fell by 3.2 percent while imports rose 3.3 percent.

One-year median household inflation expectations (June) ticked up to 3.7 percent from a prior 3.5 percent. Medical care and rent expectations both moved higher.

Quick Commentary

Yesterday's household inflation expectations number looks like an outlier given the recent trend in TIPS breakevens and the latest survey results from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan. Absent a renewed uptrend in energy prices -and note here that, even with the ceasefire in the Middle East now in jeopardy, crude oil is still down by more than a third from its April peak- it is a safe bet that the headline inflation rate will come down in the months ahead, pushing expectations more broadly lower.

Today's Highlights

FOMC minutes

Consumer credit

Mortgage applications

Daily Trivia

What measure of credit risk was named for an engineer and a mathematician who met at the Stanford Research Institute in the 1950s?

(Tuesday's Question: Since World War II, what is the only decade in which the consumer price index has risen by less than 2.0 percent annualized? Answer: 2010s)