Daily Rundown

July 6, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

2.9 - The three-month annualized percentage change in average hourly earnings in June, the slowest pace since November 2020

Quote of the Day

"We continue to have policy in a slightly restrictive position, so inflation should come down." - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly

Friday's Highlights

Nonfarm payroll employment (June) rose by 57,000, the slowest in four months, as leisure, retail, and information services jobs all fell.

The unemployment rate (June) ticked lower to 4.2 percent from a prior 4.3 percent, as the labor force participation rate slumped to a five-year low.

The average workweek (June) held steady at 34.3 hours for a third straight month. The factory workweek fell, but overtime was up.

Average hourly earnings (June) rose by 0.3 percent on the month and 3.5 percent year-over-year.

Factory orders (May) fell by 1.3 percent overall, but moved higher by 1.4 percent for core capital goods.

Quick Commentary

One month does not make a trend, but the June jobs data looked much more like the soft reports of 2025 than the solid releases of earlier this spring. Cyclical payroll growth (job gains outside of government, private education, and health care) was negative, revisions were to the downside, and wage growth continued to show signs of cooling. The drop in leisure employment was suspiciously large -down by 61,000 for the biggest decline in the category since 2020- especially given the expected bounce from the World Cup, however, so there is some scope for a renewed pickup in the months ahead. Overall, though, these numbers suggest that the labor market hasn't stabilized quite as much as it had seemed earlier this year and that it remains a source of risk for the broader economy.

Today's Highlight

ISM services survey

Daily Trivia

What country's longtime currency, which was replaced at the outset of this year, translates to "lion", the name chosen in the late 19th century as an expression of strength and independence from Ottoman rule?

(Thursday's Question: What was the world's first mixed-use skyscraper, incorporating offices, a department store, parking, and apartments, and also the tallest building outside of New York when it opened in 1968? Answer: John Hancock Center)