Daily Rundown

June 1, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

13.5 - Increase in the Chicago business barometer index in May, the largest monthly gain since mid-2020

Quote of the Day

"Reacting to temporarily elevated energy price inflation would add unwarranted policy restraint, weighing unnecessarily on economic activity and labor market conditions." - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman

Friday's Highlights

The goods trade deficit (April) declined to $82.4 billion from a prior $85.3 billion. Exports rose by 4.0 percent while imports were up 1.9 percent.

The Chicago business barometer index (May) jumped to a 52-month high 62.7 from a prior 49.2.

Wholesale inventories (April) moved higher by 0.5 percent, a third straight solid increase.

Retail inventories (April) rose by 0.7 percent, adding to the 1.3 percent increase in the prior month.

Quick Commentary

The trade balance has been a sizeable swing factor in the real GDP data in recent quarters, but it is likely to have relatively little impact in Q2 after the modest move in April. In contrast, capex and inventories are on track to be significant positive contributors in what is shaping up to be a robust headline quarterly growth rate after the middling numbers (0.5 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively) of Q4 and Q1.

Today's Highlights

ISM manufacturing survey

Construction spending

Daily Trivia

What country went through five presidents in less than two weeks in late 2001 and early 2002, en route to a then-record sovereign default of more than $80 billion?

(Friday's Question: What company created several dummy entities, including Ayefour Corp., a word play on the I-4 interstate, to make secretive land purchases in the 1960s? Answer: Disney (the land in Central Florida would become the site of Walt Disney World))