Daily Rundown

May 29, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

2.3 - The Dallas Fed's trimmed mean PCE inflation rate in April, just off of the slowest pace since 2021. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has indicated a preference for using this metric as the best read on underlying inflation dynamics.

Quote of the Day

"While customers continue to be thoughtful about big-ticket purchases, they are willing to spend on high price-point products when they need to or when there is technology innovation." - Best Buy CEO Corie Barry

Thursday's Highlights

Initial unemployment claims (week of 5/17) rose by 5,000 to 215,000.

Real disposable income (April) fell by 0.5 percent, a third straight decline.

Real personal spending (April) inched up by 0.1 percent. 

The personal saving rate (April) fell to 2.6 percent, the lowest in nearly four years.

The PCE price index (April) was up by 0.4 percent on the month and 3.8 percent year-over-year.

The core PCE price index (April) was up by 0.2 percent on the month and 3.3 percent year-over-year.

Real GDP (Q1) was revised lower to show an increase of 1.6 percent. Consumption grew by 1.4 percent while capex jumped 10.1 percent.

New home sales (April) fell by 6.2 percent and are now off by 14.0 percent since the outset of the year.

Durable goods orders (April) shot up by 7.9 percent, as aircraft orders more than doubled. Core capital goods orders fell 1.1 percent.

The Fed's senior loan officer survey (February-April) showed that banks modestly tightened lending standards over the last three months.

Quick Commentary

The near-term economic trends continue to be generally positive on balance, as jobless claims remain low, capex continues to soar, and real consumer spending continues to grow. At the same time, the falling saving rate, tightening lending standards, and the euphoria in the financial markets are all late-cycle dynamics that suggest that this expansion is much closer to its end than its beginning. Moreover, these trends also hint at potentially sizeable imbalances when the cycle finally turns and, as a consequence, the possibility of a relatively deep pullback in real GDP in the next recession.

Today's Highlights

Goods trade balance

Chicago PMI

Daily Trivia

What company created several dummy entities, including Ayefour Corp., a word play on the I-4 interstate, to make secretive land purchases in the 1960s?

(Thursday's Question: What country's coins incorporate its name in four different languages, English, Chinese, Malay, and Tamil? Answer: Singapore)