Daily Rundown

March 26, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

6.4 - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate last week, equaling the highest in six months

Quote of the Day

"I boosted my policy rate by half a percent, not due to oil and Iran, but due to the inflation data that we received." - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran on his outlook for the federal funds target at the end of the year

Wednesday's Highlights

Import prices (February) rose by 1.3 percent on the month and are now up by 1.3 percent year-over-year.

Core import prices (February) rose by 1.2 percent on the month and are now up by 2.8 percent year-over-year.

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 3/14) fell by 5.4 percent, the first decline in four weeks.

Quick Commentary

While there are still reasons to believe that the longer-term disinflationary trend remains intact (the labor market is soft, productivity growth is strong), the war and the renewed rise in import prices are pushing the immediate-term risks decidedly to the upside. As a result, the Fed is likely to be sidelined for the foreseeable future, as even the FOMC's most dovish member has dialed back his assessment of the appropriate number of rate cuts this year.

Today's Highlight

Unemployment claims

Daily Trivia

Whose possessions were auctioned off after his 1718 death for 2,500 pounds, a small sum considering his reputation for plunder and buried treasure?

(Wednesday's Question: What iconic Menlo Park, California sign, a popular photo spot for visitors, was taken down on October 28, 2021? Answer: The Facebook "Thumbs Up" sign (taken down when the company changed its name to Meta))