Daily Rundown

March 25, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

-11.3 - The Philadelphia Fed's non-manufacturing employment index in March, down from 10.6 in February and the lowest in 19 months

Quote of the Day

"We remain optimistic about the long-term housing market with favorable demographics supporting higher demand over time together with the structural undersupply of homes. Near-term, buyers continue to demonstrate the desire for homeownership and the ability to qualify, although tepid consumer confidence, elevated mortgage rates, and affordability pressures have stifled underlying demand." - KB Home CEO Robert McGibney

Tuesday's Highlights

Productivity (Q4) was revised down to show an increase of 1.8 percent annualized for the quarter and 2.5 percent for the year.

The Richmond Fed manufacturing index (March) improved to 0.0 from a prior -10.0.

The Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index (March) fell to a ten-month low -23.9 from a prior -17.3.

KB Home orders (December-February) rose by 2.7 percent year-over-year. Closing prices fell 9.7 percent year-over-year.

Quick Commentary

Productivity has trended upward in recent years, as, not coincidentally, hours worked have flatlined. It is not unprecedented for hours to stall for a time during an economic expansion -they grew weakly in 1962, 1967, and 1986, for example- but it is highly unusual for them to stagnate for as long as they have in this cycle. In fact, the 0.7 percent increase in hours since the end of 2022 is second smallest three-year increase on record in an expansion, surpassing only a 0.6 rise during the jobless recovery of the early 2000s (on average, hours have risen by more than 7.0 percent across three-year expansionary periods). This is perhaps a hint of an AI-driven new normal in which efficiency gains drive economic growth without lifting employment.  That is at least the environment we are in at the moment, one that is conducive to solid corporate profit growth, disinflation, and moderate interest rates, but less healthy for employment, income, and consumption.

Today's Highlights

Import prices

Mortgage applications

Daily Trivia

What iconic Menlo Park, California sign, a popular photo spot for visitors, was taken down on October 28, 2021?

(Tuesday's Question: What annual event grew from just 12 attendees at a Red Lion hotel in 1981 to more than 30,000 at a 1.1-million square foot convention center by the late 2000s? Answer: The Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting)