Daily Rundown

March 16, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

3.1 - The year-over-year change in the core PCE price index in January, the highest in 22 months

Quote of the Day

"Interviews completed prior to the military action in Iran showed an improvement in sentiment from last month, but lower readings seen during the nine days thereafter completely erased those initial gains." - University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu

Friday's Highlights

Real disposable income (January) jumped by 0.7 percent, boosted by a drop in personal taxes.

Real personal spending (January) ticked up by 0.1 percent for a third straight month.

The PCE price index (January) moved higher by 0.3 percent on the month and 2.8 percent year-over-year.

The core PCE price index (January) moved higher by 0.4 percent on the month and 3.1 percent year-over-year.

Real GDP (Q4) was revised down to show an increase of 0.7 percent from a prior estimate of 1.4 percent.

Job openings (January) rose by 396,000 to 6.9 million, the first increase in three months and the largest since October 2024.

Consumer sentiment (March) slipped to 55.5 from a prior 56.6. Present situation sentiment was higher while expectations fell.

Durable goods orders (January) were unchanged. Core capital goods orders were also flat, their worst performance in seven months.

Quick Commentary

The increase in job openings in January came only after a big decline (-620,000) in the final two months of 2025 and still leaves the series in a downtrend, both in absolute terms and relative to the size of the unemployed population. The FOMC is a good bet to stand pat at this week's meeting, due in part to the stubbornly above-target core PCE inflation rate, but a continuation of the current trend in the labor market would very likely mean a resumption of the easing cycle well before the end of the year.

Today's Highlights

Industrial production

Home builder sentiment

Empire State manufacturing survey

Daily Trivia

In what year did U.S. real GDP surge by a record 13.4 percent, lifted by war mobilization and the lingering momentum from a prior war that had ended just five years earlier?

(Friday's Question: In inflation-adjusted terms, what is the highest grossing film to have won the Academy Award for Best Picture? Answer: Gone with the Wind)