Daily Rundown

March 12, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

2.8 - The annual percentage change in the median CPI component in February, down from 3.0 percent in the prior month and the lowest since September 2021

Quote of the Day

"I would like to see a smaller balance sheet for the Federal Reserve as a whole." - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman

Wednesday's Highlights

The CPI (February) rose by 0.3 percent on the month and 2.4 percent year-over-year.

The core CPI (February) rose by 0.2 percent on the month and 2.5 percent year-over-year, equaling the smallest annual increase early 2021.

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 2/28) jumped by 7.8 percent, a second straight outsized increase. The average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.2 percent.

Quick Commentary

The February CPI numbers were largely well behaved, as the core index was up by just 0.2 percent for the third time in the last four reports and the key cyclical components (housing, recreation, and the miscellaneous category) all came in on the soft side. Housing is, of course, a linchpin for the overall inflation rate given its weighting within the CPI (44.5 percent of the index), so the steady slowdown in its largest subcomponent, owners' equivalent rent, is a strong sign on its own that the broader risks from here are still tilted to the downside. The spike in oil prices will temporarily lift the headline index for at least one month, but note that the influence of energy prices on non-energy inflation has waned as the economy has become more efficient and services-oriented in recent decades and that oil prices tend to fall quickly once the exogenous shocks that drive them higher inevitably run their course.

Today's Highlights

Initial unemployment claims

Housing starts

Trade balance

Household balance sheet

Lennar earnings

Daily Trivia

What novel and film are thought to have been an allegory about 19^th century monetary policy, with the title character representing the bankers who supported the gold standard?

(Wednesday's Question: What actor's name was used for the Dodd-Frank rule banning commodities trading based on misappropriated, nonpublic government information? Answer: Eddie Murphy (for Trading Places))