Daily Rundown

February 23, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

9.1 - The effective U.S. tariff rate after Friday's Supreme Court ruling, down from 16.9 percent prior to the decision

Quote of the Day

"I'm not fully convinced that we're on a pathway to our 2.0 percent target." - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan

Friday's Highlights

The Supreme Court invalidated the U.S. tariffs imposed last year under emergency powers legislation.

Real GDP (Q4) rose by 1.4 percent, as consumer spending slowed and government spending contracted.

Real disposable income (December) was unchanged, as wage and salary growth slowed.

Real personal spending (December) ticked up by 0.1 percent, a seventh straight increase.

The personal saving rate (December) fell to a 38-month low 3.6 percent from a prior 3.7 percent.

New home sales (December) moved lower by 1.7 percent after soaring 15.5 percent in the prior month. The median price fell 1.3 percent for the year.

Consumer sentiment (February) improved to 56.6 from a prior 56.4. The current conditions index rose by 1.2 points while expectations slipped by 0.4 points.

Quick Commentary

The Supreme Court's decision on Friday should bolster both growth and inflation expectations, with the caveat that the tariffs that were nullified may still return under a different guise as the White House pursues alternative legal pathways. The upshot is that uncertainty will remain elevated for now, and that the trade numbers will continue to be subject to outsized swings from month-to-month and quarter-to-quarter. To this point, however, the lack of clarity has done little to derail the pace of economic growth, even if it has likely weighed on the labor market. Core GDP has advanced at a steady clip over the last two years, as productivity gains have offset the slowdown in employment.

Today's Highlights

Factory orders

Dallas Fed manufacturing survey

Daily Trivia

What was the largest private sector employer in the U.S. for much of the 20^th century before being surpassed by Walmart in the late 1990s?

(Friday's Question: What industry accounted for half of all securities listed on the New York Stock Exchange at the turn of the 20th century? Answer: Railroads)