Daily Rundown

February 19, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

4.5 - The percentage increase in core capital goods orders in the last six months of 2025, the strongest half-year since the first half of 2022

Quote of the Day

"Several participants indicated that they would have supported a two-sided description of the committee's future interest-rate decisions, reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation remains at above-target levels." - From the minutes of the January 27-28 FOMC meeting

Wednesday's Highlights

FOMC meeting minutes (January 27-28) showed diminished concerns over downside employment risks and steady concerns over upside inflation risks.

Housing starts (December) rose by 6.2 percent to an annual pace of 1.4 million, the highest in five months. 

Industrial production (January) moved higher by 0.7 percent, the most in 11 months, in a broad-based increase.

Durable goods orders (December) fell by 1.4 percent due to a pullback in aircraft orders. Core capital goods orders were up by a solid 0.6 percent.

The New York Fed services index (February) declined by 9.6 points to -25.7, the lowest level in more than five years.

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 2/7) moved lower by 2.7 percent to the lowest level since early October. Rates fell modestly.

Quick Commentary

The capex boom is increasingly showing up in the economic data, helping to lift even the industrial production series out of its doldrums. IP is now rising by 2.3 percent year-over-year, led by a 6.7 percent increase in computers/electronics, after skirting the zero line on an annual basis for much of the last three years. Capital goods orders are also accelerating and, given the guidance from the big tech companies in recent weeks, are a good bet to turn more sharply higher in the months ahead. 

Today's Highlights

Initial unemployment claims

Trade balance

Pending home sales

Leading indicators

Walmart earnings

Daily Trivia

What country was appropriately the last to formally abandon the gold standard, ending it via referendum in 1999?

(Wednesday's Question: What market did Visa enter with a $150,000 purchase in 2021, with the company noting that this industry would "play an important role in the future of retail, social media, entertainment, and commerce"? Answer: NFTs)