Daily Rundown

February 17, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

2.966 - The annual percentage change in the median CPI component in January, the first time it has been under 3.0 percent since September 2021

Quote of the Day

"I think rates can go down more -even several cuts more- from where they are today. But that's conditional on getting inflation back on path to 2 percent." - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

Friday's Highlights

The CPI (January) rose by 0.2 percent on the month and 2.4 percent year-over-year.

The core CPI (January) rose by 0.3 percent on the month and 2.5 percent year-over-year, the slowest annual pace in nearly five years.

Quick Commentary

There were a few worrisome signs in Friday's inflation data, most notably the sizeable increases in the recreation (+0.5 percent) and miscellaneous (+1.3 percent) indices, both of which have historically been among the strongest indicators of an overheating economy. On balance, though, this was another tame report, highlighted by one of the smallest increases in owners' equivalent rent in the last five years. The CPI's largest component remains in a steady slowdown, one that likely still has plenty of room to run given the ongoing weakness in the market-based rent data (according to Apartment List, for example, rents are currently contracting by 1.4 percent year-over-year). It is going to be difficult to get much of a renewed rise in the inflation rate when the line-item that makes up 26.2 percent of the total is still pulling it lower.

Today's Highlights

Home builder sentiment

Empire State manufacturing survey

Daily Trivia

What country passed Australia in the late 1980s to become the world's tenth largest economy, marking a return to the top ten after an absence of nearly a century?

(Friday's Question: What did handyman Vincenzo Peruggia attempt to sell to a Florence art dealer in 1913 for roughly $95,000, hoping to give it a permanent home in its native Italy? Answer: the Mona Lisa)