Daily Rundown

February 11, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

31.0 - Share of small businesses with unfilled positions in January, down from 33.0 percent in the prior month and the lowest since mid-2020

Quote of the Day

"We will learn in the coming months whether inflation is coming down to our target and whether the labor market will remain stable. If so, this would tell me that our current policy stance is appropriate and no further rate cuts are needed to achieve our dual mandate goals." - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan

Tuesday's Highlights

Retail sales (December) were unchanged overall and down by 0.1 percent in the core control group. Sales at clothing stores, electronics stores, auto dealers, and bars/restaurants were all lower.

The employment cost index (Q4) rose by 0.7 percent, equaling the smallest increase in more than five years, and is now up by 3.4 percent year-over-year.

The small business optimism index (January) ticked down to 99.3 from a prior 99.5. Hiring, compensation, and capex plans all moved lower.

The household delinquency rate (Q4) rose to 4.8 percent, the highest since 2017, from a prior 4.5 percent.

Marriott revenue per available room (Q4) moved higher by 1.1 percent year-over-year, led by a 10.6 percent gain in the Middle East and Africa.

Quick Commentary

While the delinquency rate is still low in absolute terms -the average over the last two decades is 5.9 percent- its steady climb since late 2022 should be taken as another sign that the underlying risks to the expansion are still rising even as massive capital spending plans are lifting the near-term outlook. It is safe to assume that household financial stress will continue to build as long as the labor market continues to cool.

Today's Highlights

Employment

Mortgage applications

Daily Trivia

For what reason did the city of Calgary leave messages such as "We'd fight a bear for you" and "Even you can't move mountains" on Seattle sidewalks in 2017?

(Monday's Question: What 19th century industry is considered a precursor to venture capital due to its large upfront investment requirements and uncertain payouts? Answer: Whaling)