Daily Rundown

February 12, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

-1.03 million - The downward revision to the previously estimated nonfarm payroll employment level at the end of 2025 after yesterday's annual and monthly revisions

Quote of the Day

"In my view, further rate cuts risk allowing high inflation to persist even longer." - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid

Wednesday's Highlights

Nonfarm payroll employment (January) rose by 130,000, the most in 13 months, as health care jobs soared while construction, manufacturing, and business services turned in modest increases.

The unemployment rate (January) fell to 4.2 percent from a prior 4.3 percent, recording back-to-back declines for the first time in a year.

The average workweek (January) moved up a tick to 34.3 hours from a prior 34.2 hours. The factory workweek rose to 40.1 hours from a prior 40.0 hours.

Average hourly earnings (January) increased by 0.4 percent on the month and 3.7 percent year-over-year.

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 1/31) fell by 2.4 percent for a third straight decline. The average 30-year fixed rate was unchanged at 6.2 percent.

Quick Commentary

The jobs report was just about as good as might have been hoped, as payroll growth picked up, the workweek rose, and the unemployment rate eased again. Further data along these lines would be a strong sign that the labor market is pivoting toward reacceleration and that the broader risks are turning more decidedly to the upside. These numbers come with two significant caveats, however: First, non-health care/education payrolls fell again and have now contracted in eight of the last nine months. Second, the longstanding pattern of negative revisions suggests that the reported headline increase for last month should be considered highly tenuous. One year ago, for example, the BLS reported that payrolls had risen by a solid 143,000 in January 2025, a gain that has since been revised all the way down to a decline of 48,000. The outlook brightened a bit yesterday, but the improvement implied by the headlines is still far from convincing.

Today's Highlights

Initial unemployment claims

Existing home sales

Daily Trivia

Due to remote work capabilities and a lack of reliance on physical production, what sector recorded the smallest drop in jobs in April 2020, falling by just 3.0 percent even as overall payrolls slid 13.6 percent?

(Wednesday's Question: For what reason did the city of Calgary leave messages such as "We'd fight a bear for you" and "Even you can't move mountains" on Seattle sidewalks in 2017? Answer: To lure Amazon's HQ2)