Daily Rundown

December 19, 2025

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

0.3 - Percentage increase in the CPI's owners' equivalent rent component from September to November, the smallest two-month rise since 2020

Quote of the Day

"My view is that the settling point of rates is a fair bit below where it is today, and that by the end of next year we can, as long as we are hitting our marks on getting inflation back on path to two percent, I think that it's realistic that rates can come down a fair amount." - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

Thursday's Highlights

The CPI (November) rose by 2.7 percent year-over-year, down from 3.0 percent in September.

The core CPI (November) rose by 2.6 percent year-over-year, down from 3.0 percent in September and the lowest since early 2021.

Initial unemployment claims (week of 12/6) fell by 13,000 to 224,000, in line with the average for the year.

The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (December) fell to -10.2 from a prior -1.7. New orders, shipments, and employment were all improved, however.

FedEx average daily package volume (September-November) moved higher by 4.5 percent year-over-year.

Quick Commentary

Yesterday's CPI report should be taken with a grain of salt given the lack of October data and the late start to the survey in November, but it coheres in broad strokes with the signs that the disinflation trend has picked up some speed of late. Note, for example, that the Philadelphia Fed's prices paid index hit a six-month low in December while Zillow's rent index climbed at its slowest pace in 29 months in November. This is still a disinflationary economy, even if the latest numbers may have overstated the trend a bit.

Today's Highlights

Existing home sales

Consumer sentiment

Daily Trivia

What country has had the world's strongest labor force growth since 2000, as it has channeled its energy wealth into massive infrastructure and industrial projects?

(Thursday's Question: What new type of building was critiqued by Frank Lloyd Wright as having "all the evils of the village street and none of its charm" as he visited the first such structure in the U.S. in 1956? Answer: Shopping mall)