Daily Rundown

December 18, 2025

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

$424,200 - The average mortgage purchase loan application size in the week of December 6, virtually unchanged from the year-ago level

Quote of the Day

"What we see is that consumers, when there is a discount, we see them buying more because they're financially strained." - General Mills CEO Jeff Harmening

Wednesday's Highlights

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 12/6) fell by 2.8 percent for a second straight decline. The average 30-year fixed rate ticked up modestly to 6.4 percent.

The Atlanta Fed's one-year business inflation estimate (December) was little changed at 2.2 percent.

Wholesale used vehicle prices (mid-December) were up by 0.3 percent on the month and 0.6 percent year-over-year.

Quick Commentary

Business, household, and market-based inflation expectations have all been in decline in recent months, thanks in no small part to the relatively tame trend in actual price pressures. There are some lingering upside inflation risks heading into 2026, but it would take a sustained move up in the pace of economic growth for them to come to fruition.

Today's Highlights

CPI

Initial unemployment claims

Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey

FedEx earnings

Daily Trivia

What new type of building was critiqued by Frank Lloyd Wright as having "all the evils of the village street and none of its charm" as he visited the first such structure in the U.S. in 1956?

(Wednesday's Question: What toys were in such unexpectedly high demand during the holiday season of 1977 that they were sold only as empty boxes with a promise of delivery in the following year? Answer: Star Wars action figures)