Daily Rundown

December 17, 2025

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

1.2 - Percentage point increase in the unemployment rate since the cycle low in 2023, marking the largest rise in an economic expansion on record

Quote of the Day

"Even as interest rates moved slightly lower in our fourth quarter, the overall market remained challenged. Accordingly, our...results reflect a disciplined commitment to increasing housing supply in a market constrained by affordability challenges, as well as weak consumer confidence." - Lennar Co-CEO Stuart Miller

Tuesday's Highlights

Nonfarm payrolls (November) rose by 64,000, as health care jobs continued to grow strongly. Construction employment turned in its largest increase in 14 months.

The unemployment rate (November) moved up to 4.6 percent, the highest in more than four years, from a prior 4.4 percent.

The average workweek (November) ticked up to 34.3 hours from a prior 34.2 hours.

Average hourly earnings (November) rose by 0.1 percent on the month and 3.5 percent year-over-year, the slowest annual pace since May 2021.

Retail sales (November) were unchanged overall and up by a solid 0.8 percent in the core control group. Online sales were especially strong.

Business inventories (September) rose by 0.2 percent while sales were unchanged on the month. The I/S ratio held steady at 1.37.

Lennar new home orders (September-November) jumped by 18.5 percent year-over-year, as the average price declined 11.8 percent.

Quick Commentary

The jobs numbers were on the whole better than expected, as payrolls grew, breadth improved, and the workweek edged higher. Coupled with the solid retail sales data, this report should be taken as a sign the labor market, while cooling, is still healthy enough to support an expansionary pace of consumption. That said, the risks here remain sizeable, with job growth soft and wage growth slowing. Payrolls are now up by an average of 55,000 thus far in 2025, more than 100,000 south of the historical average in the final year of expansions, while the jobless rate has risen by a magnitude that has never failed to signal an impending recession. The labor market has been impressively resilient to this point, but a sustained re-acceleration from these levels would be unprecedented. This is for now still a choppy, slow-motion slowdown.

Today's Highlight

Mortgage applications

Daily Trivia

What toys were in such unexpectedly high demand during the holiday season of 1977 that they were sold only as empty boxes with a promise of delivery in the following year?

(Tuesday's Question: What was the last company headquartered on the East Coast to rank as the most valuable in the U.S. by market cap? Answer: General Electric)