Daily Rundown

November 25, 2025

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

50.0 - Share of respondents to the BMO holiday survey who plan to increase spending this year, down from 62.0 percent in 2024

Quote of the Day

"We're currently facing challenging business conditions on several fronts, including rising raw material costs from national suppliers, supply disruptions and higher prices from international vendors, the loss of a few key distributors that have gone out of business, difficulties in collecting outstanding payments, increased labor costs, and a shortage of qualified candidates." - Respondent to the November Dallas Fed manufacturing survey

Monday's Highlights

Industrial production data was revised downward by an average of 0.4 percent per year for 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025.

The Dallas Fed manufacturing index (November) fell to a five-month low -10.4 from a prior -5.0. New orders, production, and shipments were all improved, however.

Quick Commentary

The IP revisions leave the series down by 2.2 percent since it peaked in 2022, making it by far the weakest of the six monthly indicators the NBER uses to determine business cycle turning points. Two of the remaining five series are also off of their highs for the cycle, however, and a third (nonfarm payrolls) may be in a downtrend as well given the revisions that are still to come. It continues to be at least plausible, then, that the economy has already slipped into an outright contraction even as the signal from the coincident indicators in aggregate remains far from conclusive.

Today's Highlights

Retail sales

PPI

Consumer confidence

Case-Shiller home prices

Best Buy earnings

Daily Trivia

What country's currency, which has fallen by 96.8 percent since it was revalued in 2005, is ironically symbolized by a half anchor meant to show that it is a "safe harbor"?

(Monday's Question: What company's longstanding logo was inspired by the red star tattoo worn by its founder? Answer: Macy's)