Daily Rundown

November 21, 2025

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

66.4 - Share of overall job growth in September from health care and government, two sectors that account for just 29.5 percent of payroll employment

Quote of the Day

"There are certainly some pockets of moderation that we're keeping an eye on. But if you look at our guidance for the fourth quarter, it would indicate that we have an expectation that it's going to look pretty similar to the other quarters this year. Holiday is off to a pretty good start." - Walmart CFO John David Rainey

Thursday's Highlights

Nonfarm payroll employment (September) rose by 119,000, led by health care and leisure. Business services, trade, and manufacturing jobs declined.

The unemployment rate (September) ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to a four-year high 4.4 percent.

Average hourly earnings (September) rose by 0.2 percent on the month and 3.8 percent year-over-year.

The average workweek (September) held steady at 34.2 hours.

Initial unemployment claims (week of 11/9) fell by 8,000 to 220,000.

Existing home sales (October) rose by 1.2 percent to an eight-month high annual pace of 4.1 million.  The median price was up 2.1 percent year-over-year.

Walmart same-store sales (August-October) moved higher by 4.4 percent year-over-year.

Quick Commentary

The first jobs report in two and a half months had a familiar ring to it, as payroll growth was again modest (and again driven by non-cyclical areas of the economy), revisions were again negative, wage growth continued to moderate, and the jobless rate again ticked higher. The rise in the unemployment rate now ranks as the largest in an expansion since the jobless recovery of the early 1990s and would already easily top the table as the largest in a pre-recession period on record. These numbers are a bit dated at this point, but they are consistent with an overarching trend that has been in place for some time: the labor market is still slowly cooling and the broader risks as a result are still climbing.

Today's Highlight

Consumer sentiment

Daily Trivia

What popular characters were animated for the first time in a series of late 1950s/early 1960s ads for Ford, which licensed them in an effort to appeal to young families?

(Thursday's Question: What company's name is derived from the Danish words for "play well"? Answer: Lego)