Daily Rundown

November 20, 2025

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

515,000 - The San Francisco Fed's estimate of net migration this year, down from 2.2 million in 2024

Quote of the Day

"Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target rate unchanged for the rest of the year." - From the minutes of the October FOMC meeting

Wednesday's Highlights

FOMC meeting minutes (October 28-29) showed a split among policymakers, with several participants disagreeing with the decision to cut rates last month.

The trade deficit (August) narrowed by $18.6 billion to $59.6 billion, as imports fell by 5.1 percent.

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 11/8) fell by 2.3 percent, as rates ticked up modestly.

The Atlanta Fed's business survey (November) showed one-year inflation expectations of 2.2 percent, an 11-month low.

Wholesale used vehicle prices (November) rose by 1.0 percent on the month and are now down by 0.2 percent year-over-year.

NVIDIA revenue (August-October) jumped by 62.5 percent year-over-year, the first acceleration in the growth rate in seven quarters.

Target same-store sales (August-October) fell 2.7 percent year-over-year.

Lowe's same-store sales (August-October) ticked higher by 0.4 percent year-over-year.

TJX same-store sales (August-October) rose by 5.0 percent year-over-year.

Quick Commentary

The NVIDIA numbers and this morning's better-than-expected jobs report will provide more ammunition to the Fed's already-vocal hawkish contingent and add to the likelihood that last month's rate cut will be the final move of the year. Moreover, the cancellation of the October employment report means that the scope for any game-changing news before next month's FOMC meeting is limited. Easing inflationary pressures and a cautious consumer still point to a pickup in the pace of easing in 2026, but the Fed for now looks to be back on the sidelines.

Today's Highlights

Employment

Initial unemployment claims

Existing home sales

Walmart earnings

Daily Trivia

What company's name is derived from the Danish words for "play well"?

(Wednesday's Question: By market cap, what is the largest company that is named for a U.S. city? Answer: Cisco Systems (San Francisco))