Daily Rundown

November 19, 2025

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

-4,933 - ADP's estimate of the average weekly change in private payrolls since early July

Quote of the Day

"We had expected demand to begin accelerating gradually in the back half of the year as interest and mortgage rates eased. But what we see is ongoing consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing disproportionately impacting home improvement demand." - Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail

Tuesday's Highlights

Initial unemployment claims (week of 10/12) came in at 232,000, up from 219,000 in the final pre-shutdown reading in mid-September.

Factory orders (August) rose by 1.4 percent on the back of a surge in aircraft bookings. Core capital goods orders were up 0.4 percent.

ADP's private employment estimate (week of 10/25) fell by 2,500 on a four-week average basis.

The home builder sentiment index (November) ticked up to a seven-month high 38.0 from a prior 37.0.

The New York Fed's services index (November) improved modestly to -21.7 from a prior -23.6. The employment index hit a 57-month low.

Home Depot same-store sales (August-October) edged up by 0.2 percent year-over-year overall and 0.1 percent in the U.S.

Quick Commentary

The early read is that the economic backdrop didn't change much during the government shutdown, as the housing market remains in a halting upturn while the labor market continues to be stagnant. Periods of stasis in the labor market are rarely long-lasting, however, and this one is already beginning to show signs of breaking to the downside. Should this trend continue, even if at the prevailing glacial pace, it is a safe bet that sentiment and spending will follow suit. 

Today's Highlights

FOMC minutes

Mortgage applications

NVIDIA earnings

Target earnings

Lowe's earnings

TJX earnings

Daily Trivia

By market cap, what is the largest company that is named for a U.S. city?

(Thursday's Question: What commodity does Canada keep in a strategic reserve due to its unpredictable harvests, cultural symbolism, and importance to the rural Quebec economy? Answer: Maple syrup)