Daily Rundown
November 5, 2026
Chart of the Day
Number of the Day
58,000
The increase in cyclical payroll employment in the October ADP jobs report, up from 26,000 in September and the strongest increase in five months
Quote of the Day
“While business activity remains strong, the impacts of tariffs, increased fuel prices, and longer lead times are becoming more challenging.”
Respondent to the October ISM services survey
Wednesday’s Highlights
The ISM services index (October) slipped to 54.5 from a prior 54.9.
ADP’s private payroll estimate (October) rose by 86,000 for a second straight month.
The trade deficit (September) narrowed modestly to $105.0 billion from a prior $105.7 billion.
Mortgage purchase applications (week of 10/24) fell by 2.0 percent, as rates edged lower.
McDonald’s same-store sales (Q3) rose 1.5 percent year-over-year despite a small drop in the U.S.
Quick Commentary
Tomorrow’s payroll print should show some improvement from the very modest increase that was reported a month ago, as job openings have risen, jobless claims have fallen, and ADP’s numbers have perked up after a lull in the summer. Still, these are middling numbers at best. The 86,000 private sector jobs reported by ADP yesterday would have ranked as the weakest month in every year from 2011 to 2017, for example, as well as below the average for the current decade. The labor market has stabilized, but it is not quite on firm footing and remains a risk factor for the broader economy.
Today’s Highlights
Unemployment claims
Productivity
Daily Trivia
What country banned the study of economics in the first half of the 20th century, citing its lack of relevance in a society with relative prosperity and a Buddhist tradition of cooperation?
(Wednesday’s Question: What is the only current member of the S&P 500 that has risen across each of the last seven recessions? Answer: Walmart)