Daily Rundown

November 4, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

-4.0

The year-over-year drop in same-store sales at Taco Bell in the third quarter, the first decline in more than six years and only the second pullback in the last decade

Quote of the Day

“We look out, and we see valuations in almost all markets relatively high. We see risk relatively elevated. The logical conclusion from high valuations and increased risk is to take risk down.”

Apollo CEO Marc Rowan

Tuesday’s Highlights

Job openings (September) rose by 333,000 to a four-month high 7.5 million.

Factory orders (September) moved higher by 1.8 percent, led by aircraft.

Quick Commentary

Job openings remain choppy on a month-to-month basis, but, with 2026 shaping up to be the first year in five with an increase, they are at least sending a signal that the labor market is no longer deteriorating. The greater near-term risk is now the nascent risk aversion reflected in the tone on the Apollo call yesterday, as well as in the recent rise in high yield spreads and the reversal in the equity market momentum trade. The internet boom of the late 1990s ended when the underlying economic fundamentals were still solid, as investors eventually balked in the face of high valuations and monetary tightening. The endgame could play out in a similar fashion in this cycle, with the market turning well before the next recession takes hold.

Today’s Highlights

ISM services survey

ADP employment

Trade balance

Mortgage applications

Daily Trivia

What is the only current member of the S&P 500 that has risen across each of the last seven recessions?

(Tuesday’s Question: Based on data from the 1940s to the present, during which U.S. presidency has the misery index (the unemployment rate plus the inflation rate) recorded its lowest average? Answer: Dwight D. Eisenhower)