Daily Rundown
October 23. 2026
Chart of the Day
Number of the Day
0.14
The contribution, in percentage points, of the yield curve to the index of leading economic indicators in September, the largest since mid-2022
Quote of the Day
“We expect the environment around us to remain volatile and challenging from cost to currencies to consumer, competitor, retailer, and geopolitical dynamics.”
Procter & Gamble CFO Andre Schulten
Thursday’s Highlights
Initial unemployment claims (week of 10/11) fell by 6,000 to a three-month low 194,000.
The index of leading economic indicators (September) was unchanged.
The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index (October) slipped to 11.0 from a prior 14.0.
Procter & Gamble organic revenue (Q3) rose 2.4 percent year-over-year.
Quick Commentary
There is some evidence that the jobless claims series has become less representative over time, as benefits have become less attractive relative to the hassle of filing. A study by the Minneapolis Fed, for example, found that just 29 percent of the unemployed population was receiving benefits in 2023. The upshot is that the ultra-low levels of claims in recent years likely overstate the underlying tightness in the labor market, at least relative to the longer-term trends. Still, there is a great deal of signal in the short-term movements in this series, which continue to provide a timely read on layoff activity at the margin and which, for now, suggest that job losses have been diminishing and that the economy more broadly is still not on the cusp of a downturn.
Today’s Highlight
Consumer sentiment
Daily Trivia
Both originally named for their primary tenants and both replacing nearby existing structures, what were the two most expensive buildings completed in the U.S. in 2009?
(Thursday’s Question: For what reason was $10,000 left under a pillow at Chicago’s Warner Hotel on September 29, 1919? Answer: The payment was made to a White Sox pitcher to throw the World Series)