Daily Rundown

October 22, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

$135-$145 billion

Meta’s outlook for capital spending in 2026, up from a prior estimate of $130-$145 billion and a 2025 tally of $69.7 billion

Quote of the Day

“Demand is growing rapidly for our vehicles. It’s exceeding our production by a significant margin.”

Tesla CEO Elon Musk

Tuesday’s Highlights

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 10/10) fell by 7.3 percent, a seventh straight decline.

Meta revenue (Q3) jumped by 26.1 percent year-over-year.

Tesla vehicle sales (Q3) fell by 2.1 percent year-over-year.

Southwest revenue passenger miles (Q3) slipped by 0.4 percent year-over-year.

Quick Commentary

The AI-driven capex boom still doesn’t appear to be running out of steam anytime soon, as Meta bumped up its guidance for the remainder of the year and delivered a broadly upbeat outlook for its spending going forward. At the same time, however, Tesla lowered its capex forecast for this year by $5 billion, hinting that at least some of the aggressive plans laid out in recent quarters may be ramped more slowly. More importantly, the massive outlays overall are setting the stage for a sharp reversal at some point given the widening gap with the sustainable long-term trends (note that Meta’s capex came in at $18.7 billion just five years ago), a turn that could very plausibly give rise to both a recession and a deep bear market.

Today’s Highlights

Unemployment claims

Leading indicators

Daily Trivia

For what reason was $10,000 left under a pillow at Chicago’s Warner Hotel on September 29, 1919?

(Wednesday’s Question: What large financial institution, which was originally founded to serve immigrants in San Francisco’s North Beath neighborhood, has been named for two different countries in its history? Answer: Bank of America (originally Bank of Italy))