Daily Rundown

August 20, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

9

The decline, in basis points, in the 30-year bond yield yesterday after the Treasury Department announced that it would increase its liquidity support buyback operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation (four per quarter each for the 10-20 and 20-30 year buckets)

Quote of the Day

“Most participants estimated that inflation would step down over the rest of the year as the effects of tariffs and earlier energy price increases wane, but many participants noted the possibility that inflation might be more persistently elevated...Many participants assessed that policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline.”

From the minutes of the July FOMC meeting

Wednesday’s Highlights

The U.S. Treasury announced that it would “at least double” long-end liquidity support buybacks.

FOMC meeting minutes (July 28-29) showed continued elevated uncertainty among policymakers.

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 8/7) fell by 2.0 percent.

Target same-store sales (May-July) rose by 3.8 percent year-over-year.

Lowe’s same-store sales (May-July) inched up by 0.2 percent year-over-year.

TJX same-store sales (May-July) rose by 4.0 percent year-over-year.

Quick Commentary

The market reaction to yesterday’s Treasury announcement was relatively muted, leaving the 30-year yield roughly in line with its level of just two weeks ago. This is likely a good hint of the effectiveness of this program more generally – a modest backstop, but far from a game-changer in an environment in which inflation and Fed tightening fears are both heightened. On that front, the FOMC minutes added little to the narrative, as the tightening bias that has been in place over the last two months continues to look tenuous given the relatively murky outlook and the lack of conviction among a sizeable portion of the committee.

Today’s Highlights

Unemployment claims

Leading indicators

Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey