Daily Rundown

July 23, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

6.69

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the week of July 11, the highest since last August

Quote of the Day

“...we continue to expect our capex to increase significantly in 2027...”

Alphabet CFO Anat Ashkenazi

Wednesday’s Highlights

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 7/11) moved higher by 5.5 percent.

Alphabet revenue (Q2) rose by 24.2 percent year-over-year.

Tesla vehicle sales (Q2) rose by 25.0 percent year-over-year.

Southwest passenger miles (Q2) edged up by 1.2 percent year-over-year.

Quick Commentary

AI capex remains the overwhelming story of this cycle, with Alphabet’s robust forecast yesterday afternoon strongly suggesting limited near-term downside for the economy at large. At the same time, the magnitude of these investments also hints at growing risks going forward; Alphabet’s free cash flow went negative for the first time in its history as a public company in Q2, as it now expects its capital expenditures to more than double this year. A continuation of this growth rate would mean more than $2 trillion in capex from this one company on its own by 2029, which would equate to roughly 5 percent of GDP. This is very likely an unsustainable trend, one that is a good bet to turn sharply once it finally runs its course.

Today’s Highlights

Unemployment claims

Kansas City manufacturing survey

Daily Trivia

What ancient ruler is thought to have been one of the richest people in history, thanks in part to claiming Egypt as his private property?

(Wednesday’s Question: What single-company organization did the American Economic Association call the world’s “most successful and longest-lasting cartel”? Answer: De Beers (The Central Selling Organization))