Daily Rundown

July 2, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

73.0 - The ISM prices paid index for manufacturing in June, down from 82.1 in May and the lowest level in four months

Quote of the Day

"Expectations of inflation over the first four weeks of this period have come down. Inflation risks have come down." - Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh

Wednesday's Highlights

The ISM manufacturing index (June) slipped to 53.3 from a prior 54.0. The employment component equaled a 33-month high even as it remained in contraction.

The ADP private payroll estimate (June) moved higher by 98,000, led by a 48,000 increase in education and health services jobs.

Construction spending (May) edged up by 0.1 percent, as residential outlays continued to climb at a healthy clip.

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 6/20) rose by 0.5 percent. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate held steady at just under 6.6 percent.

Quick Commentary

The ongoing retracement in oil prices is beginning to show up in the broader inflation data, which has been better behaved in recent months after the extreme readings of earlier this spring. The new Fed chair is clearly paying attention, as he made several dovish comments yesterday even as he refrained from addressing the monetary policy outlook explicitly (in addition to his direct statement on inflation risks, he also noted the scope for productivity to pick up and said that potential GDP growth has increased). There is an undeniable risk of a rate hike this year, but it is likely not as pronounced as priced in by the market or as anticipated by FOMC members themselves.

Today's Highlights

Employment

Unemployment claims

Factory orders

Daily Trivia

What was the world's first mixed-use skyscraper, incorporating offices, a department store, parking, and apartments, and also the tallest building outside of New York when it opened in 1968?

(Wednesday's Question: Which U.S. colony purposely misspelled its name on some of its early banknotes as an anti-counterfeiting trap, a plan that benefited from its hybrid, hard-to-spell name? Answer: Pennsylvania)