Daily Rundown

June 18, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

2029 (or later) - The FOMC now anticipates that the core PCE inflation rate will not hit the 2.0 percent target until at least 2029, as the committee projects that the rate will stand at 2.1 percent at the end of the current forecast horizon in 2028

Quote of the Day

"I can't give any forward guidance on what we'll do next." - Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh

Wednesday's Highlights

The FOMC left the federal funds target unchanged at 3.50-3.75 percent.

Retail sales (May) rose by 0.9 percent overall and a solid 0.7 percent in the core control group.

Pending home sales (May) jumped by 3.8 percent and are now up by 2.1 percent year-over-year.

Business inventories (April) were up by 0.5 percent. The I/S ratio hit a 49-month low 1.31.

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 6/6) fell by 3.4 percent. The average 30-year fixed rate was steady at 6.6 percent.

Quick Commentary

The first FOMC meeting of the Warsh era was notable for both the hawkish shift in policymakers' expectations and the de-emphasis of forward guidance. While the former development makes rate hikes this year more likely, the latter means that the updated outlook should be taken with more of a grain of salt than normal. This is especially true given that the new chair did not submit his own projections for this meeting, and did little to tip his hand in the post-meeting press conference as to where he sits on the hawk/dove spectrum. It is worth noting, however, that the trimmed mean inflation measures he favors are currently running well below the more traditional metrics (the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate, for example, currently stands at 2.4 percent versus the core PCE's 3.3 percent rate), having actually fallen since he began making dovish comments on rates last year in the run-up to his nomination. The rate hikes that were anticipated at the outset of the Yellen and Powell eras never fully materialized, and the very modest tightening that the Fed is now projecting could similarly fall by the wayside once the new chair steps more forcefully into the debate.

Today's Highlights

Unemployment claims

Leading indicators

Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey

Daily Trivia

What product was marketed upon its launch with a T-shirt that read "What a Long Strange Dip It's Been"?

(Wednesday's Question: What company's logo, originally unveiled in 1971, was inspired by a 16th century Norse woodcut of a mythical sea creature? Answer: Starbucks)