Daily Rundown

June 9, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

43.7 - Households' average estimated probability of finding a job within three months in May, down from 46.0 percent in the prior month and the second-lowest reading in the 13-year history of the survey

Quote of the Day

"Across the board, we are seeing a tremendous amount of demand for all of the mining that we produce." - Vale CEO Gustavo Pimenta

Monday's Highlights

One-year household inflation expectations (May) fell to 3.5 percent from a prior 3.6 percent.

Three-year household inflation expectations (May) slipped to 3.1 percent from a prior 3.2 percent.

Five-year household inflation expectations (May) were largely unchanged at 3.0 percent.

Quick Commentary

It is telling that household inflation expectations have remained well behaved in recent months even as the actual inflation statistics have taken a turn for the worse. This mirrors the trend in the TIPS breakeven market, suggesting that inflation expectations remain well anchored, and that, as a consequence, there is little urgency for the Federal Reserve to tighten policy. It is also telling that labor market sentiment continues to be restrained, a hint that conditions are not quite as solid as suggested by the recent pace of headline job growth.

Today's Highlights

Existing home sales

Trade balance

Small business optimism

Daily Trivia

What central bank's official emblem features a tiger standing in front of a palm tree?

(Monday's Question: What celebrated American author, better known for his folkloric short stories, helped to negotiate a free trade agreement between the U.S. and the British West Indies in 1830? Answer: Washington Irving)