Daily Rundown

May 7, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

4.4 - ADP's estimate of the median annual percentage pay increase among job stayers in April, equaling the smallest in nearly five years

Quote of the Day

"We have risks both on the employment side and on the inflation side. In my understanding, the risks have been shifting towards more risk on the inflation side than the employment side." - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem

Wednesday's Highlights

ADP's estimate of private payroll employment (April) rose by 109,000, the strongest increase in 15 months.

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 4/25) fell by 3.7 percent, as the average 30-year fixed rate ticked up to 6.5 percent.

Quick Commentary

Fiscal stimulus and aggressive capital spending have provided a bit of a boost to the labor market, which has stabilized in the early stages of 2026 after flirting with contraction for much of last year. Job growth is still not especially strong, however, and it is still not enough to arrest the slowing trend in pay increases. The labor market remains a cyclical risk, albeit one that for now is no longer intensifying.

Today's Highlights

Unemployment claims

Construction spending

Productivity

Consumer credit

Household expectations

Daily Trivia

What term was coined in Britain's House of Commons in 1965, nearly a decade before it came into widespread use in the U.S., in a speech criticizing the government's economic policies?

(Wednesday's Question: What Microsoft Office feature, introduced in 1996 to provide a human-like interaction with the user, was derided by one critic as "one of the worst software design blunders in the annals of computing"? Answer: Clippy the Paperclip)