Daily Rundown

March 19, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

1 - The FOMC continues to expect one 25-basis point rate cut in 2026

Quote of the Day

"The economic effects could be bigger, they could be smaller. They could be much smaller or much bigger. We just don't know." - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on the war in the Middle East

Wednesday's Highlights

The FOMC held the federal funds target steady at a range of 3.50-3.75 percent.

The PPI (February) rose by 0.7 percent on the month and 3.4 percent year-over-year.

The core PPI (February) rose by 0.5 percent on the month and 3.9 percent year-over-year.

Factory orders (January) edged up by 0.1 percent. Core capital goods orders were revised to show a gain of 0.1 percent.

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 3/7) increased by 0.9 percent. The average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.3 percent.

Macy's same-store sales (November-January) moved higher by 1.8 percent year-over-year.

Quick Commentary

The FOMC bumped up its GDP and inflation forecasts for 2026 yesterday, but at the same time gave no indication that a rate move in either direction was coming anytime soon. The statement was little changed from January other than to note the uncertainty surrounding the war, while Powell indicated in his post-meeting press conference that it is important to keep rates mildly restrictive for now. He did acknowledge the downside labor market risks, however, hinting that the Fed's stance could change should employment continue to slip. The Fed has historically eased aggressively when payrolls have fallen -even during periods of high inflation (mid-1970s, early 1980s, 2008)- and would very likely do so again if the job losses of late start to accumulate.

Today's Highlights

Unemployment claims

New home sales

Leading indicators

Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey

FedEx earnings

Daily Trivia

What now-defunct tech company's stock price soared by nearly 800 percent in 1979 due to the success of its second-generation personal computer?

(Wednesday's Question: What city was surprisingly passed over for a regional Federal Reserve bank in 1914 despite being the largest market in its region and having one of the world's busiest ports? Answer: New Orleans)