Daily Rundown

February 26, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

149.7 - The MBA's mortgage purchase application index for the week ended February 20, the lowest level since last April

Quote of the Day

"Our outlook for 2026 remains cautious given the persistent volatility in the housing macro. This uncertainty continues to pressure big ticket, discretionary DIY projects, as many consumers are reluctant to make significant investments in their homes." - Lowe's CEO Marvin Ellison

Wednesday's Highlights

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 2/14) fell by 4.7 percent, a fifth straight decline. The average 30-year fixed rate hit a 41-month low 6.1 percent.

NVIDIA revenue (November-January) rose by 73.2 percent year-over-year, an 11^th straight increase in excess of 50.0 percent.

Lowe's same-store sales (November-January) edged up by 1.3 percent year-over-year.

TJX same-store sales (November-January) moved higher by 5.0 percent year-over-year.

Quick Commentary

NVIDIA's numbers add to the narrative of another leg up in AI-driven capex, suggesting near-term upside risks for the economy at large. When this cycle finally does turn, however, the reversal is likely to be abrupt. Cisco Systems, the closet corollary to NVIDIA during the internet boom of the 1990s, recorded annual revenue growth of more than 25.0 percent in every quarter for more than a decade, averaging an increase of 77.6 percent, before slumping deeply into negative territory in the early 2000s. Along these same lines, overall capex soared through the first half of 2000, but then contracted sharply in both 2001 and 2002. It is a good bet that the AI cycle will play out in a similar fashion and that this major tailwind will become a significant headwind in short order.

Today's Highlight

Initial unemployment claims

Daily Trivia

What invention, which was described by an early observer as "walking over the earth like some huge animal, puffing and snorting", displaced 20-25 million horses from the U.S. economy between 1915 and 1960?

(Wednesday's Question: Whose business career was launched when his mother sent his undergraduate thesis on Shearson's merger with Hayden Stone to Sandy Weill? Answer: Jamie Dimon)