Daily Rundown

10/6/2025

Please note: Due to the government shutdown, the data we receive is very limited. As a result, we will be publishing this piece sporadically until government work resumes. In the interim, we are committed to bringing you any and all pertinent updates as we receive them.

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

49.9 - The ISM services business activity index in September, the first contractionary (sub-50.0) reading since May 2020. In the 28-year history of the series, there have only been four sub-50.0 readings during economic expansions.

Quote of the Day

"Business conditions continue to soften, even in markets that have historically been more resilient. Demand is simply weak." - Respondent to the September ISM services survey

Friday's Highlight

The ISM services index (September) fell to 50.0 from a prior 52.0. New orders expanded modestly while employment continued to contract.

Quick Commentary

While we are still waiting for the September employment report, much of the labor market data on hand for last month (ADP private payrolls (-32,000), the ISM manufacturing employment index (45.3), and ISM services employment index (47.2)) is painting a grim picture. Jobless claims were at least back on the decline prior to the government shutdown, but the numbers on balance suggest that the risks are still elevated and that employment -and perhaps even the economy at large- may already be in contraction.

Daily Trivia

What company changed its ticker symbol to a "term of affection" for its products in 2006, making the announcement in Sturgis, SD?

(Friday's Question: Which state, home to a major transportation hub, a healthy manufacturing base, a large agricultural sector, and 15 S&P 500 company headquarters, ranks as the most economically diverse in the U.S.? Answer: Georgia)