Daily Rundown

August 21, 2025

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

10 - Consecutive quarters in which Target's average ticket has fallen on a year-over-year basis

Quote of the Day

"Several participants commented that the current target range for the federal funds rate may not be far above its neutral level; among the considerations cited in support of this assessment was the likelihood that broader financial conditions were either neutral or supportive of stronger economic activity." - From the minutes of the July 29-30 FOMC meeting

Wednesday's Highlights

FOMC meeting minutes (July 29-30) showed that policymakers were broadly in watch-and-wait mode with tariff impacts still uncertain.

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 8/9) inched up by 0.1 percent as 30-year fixed rates were virtually unchanged.

Target same-store sales (May-July) fell by 1.9 percent year-over-year.

TJX same-store sales (May-July) rose by 4.0 percent year-over-year.

Lowe's same-store sales (May-July) rose by 1.1 percent year-over-year, the first increase in nearly three years.

Quick Commentary

This still doesn't look like an FOMC that, in aggregate, is anxious to ease policy again soon, as yesterday's minutes suggested that the dovish faction on the committee remains quite small. Fed Chair Jerome Powell may still open the door to a September rate cut tomorrow, but a game-changing Jackson Hole speech, such as Ben Bernanke telegraphing QE2 in 2010 or Powell himself signaling aggressive rate hikes in 2022, is unlikely to be in the cards this year.

Today's Highlights

Initial unemployment claims

Existing home sales

Leading economic indicators

Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey

Walmart earnings

Daily Trivia

What 1971 policy announcement drove the S&P 500 to its second-largest point increase on record even as it was derided by economists such as Milton Friedman as likely to end in "utter failure"?

(Wednesday's Question: What company's logo is a representation of the six visible stars of the Pleiades cluster? Answer: Subaru)