Daily Rundown

April 30, 2025

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

$162.0 billion - The trade deficit in goods in March, up from $147.8 billion in February and the widest on record

Quote of the Day

"Focusing on the U.S., in (Q1) and through April 21, we have not seen any signs of overall consumer spending weakening." - Visa CEO Ryan McInerney

Tuesday's Highlights

Consumer confidence (April) fell by 7.9 points to a five-year low 86.0, as expectations plunged.

Job openings (March) declined by 288,000 to a six-month low 7.2 million.

The Case-Shiller home price index (February) rose by 0.4 percent on the month and 4.5 percent year-over-year.

Visa worldwide payment volume (Q1) moved higher by a solid 7.5 percent year-over-year.

UPS total package volume (Q1) fell 3.5 percent year-over-year.

GM vehicle sales (Q1) rose by 7.6 percent year-over-year.

Quick Commentary

There is still a disconnect between what consumers and saying and what they are doing. The sharp drop in expectations and the ongoing hints of softening in the labor market, however, suggest a downshift in spending growth in the months ahead, one that could well be exacerbated by tariff-driven supply constraints.

Today's Highlights

GDP

Personal income

Personal spending

PCE price indices

ADP employment

Employment cost index

Pending home sales

Mortgage applications

Daily Trivia

What was the last major U.S. market to recover all of its home price declines from the late 2000s and early 2010s, not eclipsing its 2007 peak until 2021?

(Tuesday's Question: What iconic TV commercial ended with the statement "On a hilltop in Italy we assembled young people from all over the world to bring you this message"? Answer: "I'd Like to Buy the World a Coke")