Daily Rundown
October 15, 2026
Chart of the Day
Number of the Day
2.6
The yearly percentage change in the median CPI in September, equaling the slowest pace since August 2021
Quote of the Day
“Reports on other sectors (outside of manufacturing) indicate little growth overall. Most districts reported little or no change in overall consumer spending.”
From the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book
Wednesday’s Highlights
The CPI (September) rose by 0.6 percent on the month and 3.7 percent year-over-year.
The core CPI (September) rose by 0.3 percent on the month and 2.6 percent year-over-year.
Mortgage purchase applications (week of 10/3) fell by 4.0 percent, a sixth straight decline.
The Beige Book (September) showed modest to moderate growth across most of the country.
Quick Commentary
The details in the CPI report were not quite as bad as the headline, which was boosted by spiking energy prices and a pickup in the owners’ equivalent rent index that is unlikely sustainable given the current state of the housing market. The median CPI component was up by just 0.2 percent on the month and remains in slowdown mode on a year-over-year basis. At the same time, however, there were worrisome signs in the key recreation and miscellaneous categories, as well as a second straight firm reading in the “supercore” measure, which is now rising by 3.1 percent across the last year. Taken together, while these numbers are not sufficient to definitively mark the end of the longstanding slow disinflation trend, they are enough to suggest that the near-term risks remain elevated and to keep the Fed very much in play for another rate hike by the end of the year.
Today’s Highlights
Unemployment claims
PPI
Retail sales
Business inventories
Daily Trivia
Where did Chipotle launch a new location in October 2021, offering free burritos to the first 30,000 visitors per day who arrived in costume over the last four days of the month?
(Wednesday’s Question: What CNBC personality admitted to feeding the network false narratives in order to suppress stock prices in his pre-TV career as a hedge fund manager? Answer: Jim Cramer)