Daily Rundown
September 17, 2026
Chart of the Day
Number of the Day
16
The number of FOMC members, out of 18, expecting at least one more rate hike before the end of the year
Quote of the Day
“Today’s action starts to show we are serious about this. And we will deliver on the price stability objective. And as the statement said, we will do it on a timelier basis.”
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh
Wednesday’s Highlights
The FOMC lifted the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent.
Retail sales (August) jumped by 1.2 percent overall and 1.4 percent in the core control group.
Import prices (August) rose by 0.7 percent on the month and 7.0 percent year-over-year.
Core import prices (August) rose by 0.8 percent on the month and 5.5 percent year-over-year.
Home builder sentiment (September) fell by 3.0 points to a 45-month low 32.0.
Quick Commentary
The FOMC statement, Warsh’s commentary, and, especially, the updated Fed forecasts all suggest that there is further tightening to come in the months ahead. It is notable, however, that policymakers expect the fed funds target range to peak at 4.00-4.25 percent in this cycle, which would mean just one more 25 basis point increase before they step back to the sidelines. FOMC forecasts can be well off the mark, but note that significant rate hikes were expected at the outsets of both the 2015-18 and 2022-23 tightening cycles. In this case, the economic backdrop is mixed enough to keep the balance of risks from tilting too sharply to the upside, likely limiting the pace and magnitude of further hikes. Moreover, monetary tightening itself will weigh on both growth and inflation at the margin, and should at least slow the pace of increase in the equity market (consider that the S&P 500 has never risen at a double-digit annualized pace during a Fed rate hike cycle). The Fed may not be done yet, but yesterday was unlikely the opening salvo of a long and aggressive campaign.
Today’s Highlights
Unemployment claims
Housing starts
Pending home sales
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey
Daily Trivia
What product launch was met with a protest in downtown Atlanta in May 1985, with one participant carrying a sign reading “Our Children Will Never Know Refreshment”?
(Wednesday’s Question: The founder of a namesake S&P 500 company, who was the only woman to appear on Time magazine’s list of the 20 most influential business geniuses of the 20th century? Answer: Estee Lauder)