Daily Rundown

August 17, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

22.6

The average probability that income gains will beat inflation over the next five years among consumer sentiment survey respondents in August, down from 25.8 percent in the prior month and the second lowest level in the nearly three-decade history of the series

Quote of the Day

“If we get three, four months in a row like what we saw in June, I will be feeling much better that we are on a path back to 2 percent.”

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

Friday’s Highlights

Retail sales (July) fell by 0.6 percent overall and by 0.4 percent in the core control group.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (July) fell to 51.0 from a prior 55.2.

Business inventories (June) were unchanged. The I/S ratio rose for the first time in eight months.

Quick Commentary

Retail sales have been whipsawed over the last two months by the Amazon Prime Day shift from July into June, but overall are still growing at a healthy clip roughly in line with the trend of the last two years. The low personal saving rate and the widespread expectation that incomes will fail to keep up with inflation are major risk factors going forward, however, as is the poor level of consumer sentiment more generally.

Today’s Highlights

Home builder sentiment

Empire State manufacturing survey

Daily Trivia

What landmark social media artifact was sold as an NFT for $2.9 million in 2021 before its value crashed to less than $10 in the following year?

(Friday’s Question: Which two public figures, both of whom came to prominence in the 1950s, are the only two to rank among the top ten earning deceased celebrities in each of the last 25 years? Answer: Elvis Presley and Dr. Seuss)