Daily Rundown

June 26, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

3.0 - The personal saving rate in May, equaling the lowest level since June 2022

Quote of the Day

"Core inflation is still too high and trending the wrong way." - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

Thursday's Highlights

Initial unemployment claims (week of 6/14) fell by 12,000 to 215,000.

Real disposable income (May) rose by 0.3 percent.

Real personal spending (may) rose by 0.3 percent.

The PCE price index (May) moved higher by 0.4 percent on the month and 4.1 percent year-over-year.

The core PCE price index (May) moved higher by 0.3 percent on the month and 3.4 percent year-over-year.

Real GDP (Q1) was revised up to show an increase of 2.1 percent, as imports were restated lower.

Durable goods orders (May) fell by 4.5 percent overall, but were up by 1.6 percent for core capital goods.

Quick Commentary

While virtually every major inflation indicator has been in a renewed upturn in recent months, the core trimmed mean PCE measure championed by Kevin Warsh has continued to trend lower. In fact, the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate now stands at 2.4 percent, just a tick above its lowest level since 2021, a sign that price pressures are not rising nearly as broadly as implied by the headlines. This is not to say that there aren't legitimate upside risks, especially given the shortages that are increasingly pushing up electronics prices and the ongoing signs of solid growth more generally, but this still doesn't look to be an economy that is overheating. And given Warsh's preference for an inflation series that remains well behaved, it is still far from assured that the Fed will tighten this year as the market now expects.

Today's Highlights

Consumer sentiment

Goods trade balance

Daily Trivia

What unusual purchase did the world's sixth-richest person make in 2012, a deal that included a gas station, a water company, and a former pineapple plantation?

(Thursday's Question: What sleepy Midwestern city, which lost a major corporate headquarters in 2017, has the best performing housing market in the U.S. over the past year? Answer: Peoria (Caterpillar))