Daily Rundown

May 21, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

9.6 - Adjustable-rate mortgages as a share of the total in the week of May 9, up from 8.8 percent in the prior week and the highest since last October

Quote of the Day

"...participants generally judged that the continued elevated inflation readings together with uncertainty related to the duration and economic implications of the Middle East conflict could necessitate maintaining the current policy stance for longer than previously anticipated." - From the minutes of the April 28-29 FOMC meeting

Wednesday's Highlights

FOMC meeting minutes (April 28-29) showed that policy remains firmly on hold for now due to elevated uncertainty.

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 5/9) fell by 4.1 percent, as the average 30-year fixed rate ticked up to 6.6 percent.

Wholesale used vehicle prices (mid-May) rose by 0.5 percent on the month and 3.8 percent year-over-year.

NVIDIA revenue (February-April) jumped by 85.2 percent year-over-year. The networking segment was up by nearly 200.0 percent.

Target same-store sales (February-April) rose by 5.6 percent year-over-year, the most in more than four years.

Quick Commentary

NVIDIA's numbers suggest that the AI boom is still gathering speed and remains an upside for the economy at large in the quarters ahead. At what point might this trend contribute to a new round of Fed tightening? The minutes released yesterday strongly suggested that, while a majority of policymakers felt that rate hikes would be appropriate if inflation remained above the 2.0 target, no changes were likely anytime soon. It is also instructive to remember that the fed funds target was largely unchanged through the internet boom of the late 1990s. That was against a very different inflation backdrop than that of today, but it was also during a period in which the labor market was robust.

Today's Highlights

Unemployment claims

Housing starts

Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey

Walmart earnings

Daily Trivia

What Manhattan institution is home to the world's largest depository of gold, most of which is owned by governments and central banks?

(Wednesday's Question: What country misspelled the word "bank" on its redesigned currency in 2006, prompting one commentator to quip "Not even Sacha Baron Cohen could have come up with this"? Answer: Kazakhstan)