Daily Rundown

May 13, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

-0.2 - The difference between yearly percentage changes in average hourly earnings and the consumer price index in April, the first negative spread between the two series since early 2023

Quote of the Day

"We've got an inflation problem in this country, and we've got to get it back down." - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

Tuesday's Highlights

The CPI (April) rose by 0.6 percent on the month and is now up by 3.8 percent year-over-year

The core CPI (April) rose by 0.4 percent on the month and is now up by 2.8 percent year-over-year.

The small business optimism index (April) ticked up to 95.9 from a prior 95.8.

The consumer loan delinquency rate (Q1) was unchanged at 4.8 percent, equaling the highest level since 2017.

Quick Commentary

The jump in the CPI last month was much more broad-based than that in March, with the core index rising at its fastest pace since January 2025. Some of this reflected the indirect impact of higher energy prices -note the surge in airfares, for example- while some came from outlier increases in other categories. Most notably, owners' equivalent rent, which accounts for nearly a third of the core index on its own, jumped by 0.5 percent for its largest increase in three years. Considering the subdued run in the series of late, its longstanding tendency to accelerate and decelerate only incrementally, and the generally listless trend in actual rents (Zillow's rent index has risen by less than 0.1 percent in each of the last four months), this looks both anomalous and unsustainable. Overall, then, this is still likely to be a transitory pickup in price pressures, one that owes significantly to the prevailing geopolitical backdrop. That said, the spike is already pressuring real wages and is already shifting the tone of Fed commentary in a more hawkish direction. The risks of this inflation episode are building, even if it proves to be short-lived.

Today's Highlights

PPI

Mortgage applications

Daily Trivia

What company sued the British telecom firm O2 for copyright infringement for using a square, a circle, and a triangle in an advertising campaign?

(Tuesday's Question: Thanks to a post-crisis economic recovery and a leading position in telecom equipment production, what was the only developed market to outperform the S&P 500 in the second half of the 1990s? Answer: Sweden)