Daily Rundown

April 10, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

1.8 - The annualized percentage change in core GDP in the fourth quarter, the smallest increase in three years

Quote of the Day

"I think the Fed should, and will, take no action until the magnitude and duration of the shock and its effects are clearer — and that will take a considerable amount of time, even acknowledging the current fragile ceasefire." - Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley

Thursday's Highlights

Initial unemployment claims (week of 3/29) rose by 16,000 to 219,000.

Real disposable income (February) fell by 0.5 percent, as dividend receipts and transfer payments declined.

Real personal spending (February) ticked up by 0.1 percent. 

The personal saving rate (February) fell to 4.0 percent from a prior 4.5 percent.

The PCE price index (February) rose by 0.4 percent on the month and 2.8 percent year-over-year.

The core PCE price index (February) rose by 0.4 percent on the month and 3.0 percent year-over-year.

Real GDP (Q4) was revised to show an increase of 0.5 percent from a prior estimate of 0.7 percent.

Quick Commentary

It is a good bet that GDP growth will re-accelerate for a time this year thanks to AI spending and fiscal stimulus, especially should the geopolitical situation stabilize. Consumer spending has slowed a bit in recent months, however, and remains at risk going forward given the soft labor market and low personal saving rate. The saving rate is now at a level that has prevailed historically only during periods of rapidly rising asset prices (late 1990s, mid-2000s) or massive fiscal stimulus (early 2020s).

Today's Highlights

CPI

Consumer sentiment

Factory orders

Daily Trivia

What television program, which was adapted from the U.K.'s Dragons' Den, was described by one reviewer upon its 2009 debut as "entertainingly sadistic"?

(Thursday's Question: What company began after a dentist's x-ray of a golf ball showed that the rubber core was off-center? Answer: Titleist)