Daily Rundown

January 29, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

-7.8 - Bloomberg's FOMC opening statement sentiment score yesterday, up from -12.1 in December to indicate a less dovish tone in Chair Powell's press conference

Quote of the Day

"In the labor market, indicators suggest that conditions may be stabilizing after a period of gradual softening." - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Wednesday's Highlights

The FOMC left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75 percent. There were two dissenting votes in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut.

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 1/17) fell by 0.4 percent. The average 30-year fixed rate ticked up modestly to 6.2 percent.

Quick Commentary

The FOMC not only stepped back to the sidelines yesterday after rate cuts at each of the prior three meetings, but also hinted strongly that a resumption of the easing cycle in the near-term future is unlikely. The official statement removed the reference to the downside risks in the labor market, while Powell said in his press conference that "the economy has once again surprised us with its strength." He also indicated, however, that the Fed's next move was still likely to be another rate cut while acknowledging that there are still lingering signs of softness. Moreover, Powell will very likely helm just two more FOMC meetings before he gives way to a presumably more dovish chair in the spring. This has been a relatively measured easing cycle to date by historical standards and it is still a good bet to be extended, even if not in the early stages of 2026.

Today's Highlights

Initial unemployment claims

Trade balance

Productivity

Factory orders

Visa earnings

Mastercard earnings

Daily Trivia

Where is the world's most secretive Starbucks store, where names on cups are banned and baristas are forbidden from leaving their work areas without an escort?

(Wednesday's Question: What is the only non-California MSA to rank among the top nine most expensive housing markets in the U.S.? Answer: Honolulu)